Authors
Ashley Thomas
Over the medium-term Daiwa expects increasing emphasis on emission reduction, but budgetary control and corporate well being are likely to take short-term precedence. Although EU ETS wide 2012 targets should be achieved, significant individual country divergence is noticeable. A large proportion of emission reduction is likely to derive from lower domestic emissions due to the impact of the European recession and a shift in emphasis to less costly international offset. Phase II EU ETS scheme is oversupplied with carbon's international price remaining relatively low. Daiwa forecasts a 2012 EUA price of €16/tonne rising to €25/tonne in 2020, both below consensus.?