Authors
J. Doyne Farmer & Jessika Trancik
Investment analysis of low-carbon energy sources is inevitably concerned with the future cost curves for those technologies, put simply, how quickly the cost of energy produced from a given technology will become cheaper and more competitive. This contribution from the Sante Fe Institute provides an analytical framework to address that question. This paper reviews past and current studies of performance curves in the energy sector and discusses their ability to predict the future development trajectories of low-carbon energy technology options. We also summarize our current research directions in this area, and aim to provide a methodological and conceptual framework for considering the effect of performance curves on investments and policies in the low-carbon energy sector.