Authors
Trevor Maynard, and Neil Smith
This report explores hurricane activity and how it is influenced by long-term climatic changes over the Atlantic, and in particular, sea surface temperature changes (also called Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV)). The report analyses aspects of Atlantic climate variability which will help develop forecasts of hurricane activity and landfall. AMV of sea surface temperatures is likely to influence regional hurricane landfall. The report also highlights that the combined conditions of a cold AMV and an El Nino makes hurricane formation infrequent. During warm AMV periods, multiple hurricanes can still occur in an El Nino year.