Document summary
S P Angel believe that while 'commodity super-cycle' price forecasts are shelved at the moment, a generation of under-investment in agriculture has resulted in 'peak grain'. S P Angel notes that as the global agricultural reserve margin (stocks-to-use level) has fallen to 15%, a return to the historic 25% reserve margin over the next 15 years will require the habilitation (or rehabilitation) of around 140m hectares (10% of total current arable land), implying global investment requirements of the order of US$230bn over the next 15 years.