Authors
Mark C. Lewis and Isabelle Curien
ETS emissions forecasts over 2010-20 assume Germany’s nuclear energy phase-out will not proceed as planned. If current policy stays in place after the September election, ETS-emissions forecasts are expected to be raised by 15Mt for 2013 and by up to 40Mt by 2020. With German generators to start 2013 power sales from mid-2010, there could be significant demand for Phase-3 EUAs next year that would have to be met from Phase-2 allocations. Deutsche Bank considers any election outcome indicating a continuation of the current nuclear phase-out policy could provide support for EUA and power prices in Q4 of this year.