Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Evaluating Financial Risk To Oil Capital Expenditures

James Leaton (CTI), Mark Fulton (ETA) and Others

Research Organisation
Carbon Tracker Initiative

Report Date
May 6, 2014

Document summary

The risk analysis included in this report shows that many higher cost oil projects are too far up the cost curve to fit within low demand, low price scenarios that would also limit oil-related emissions to within a carbon budget. The research identifies that $1.1 trillion of potential capital expenditure (capex) up to 2025 in key locations by province requires a market price over $95/bbl. Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) recommends that investors engage now with companies to discuss the risk of capital being wasted on carbon intensive projects that are not certain to generate value, and are not consistent with the coming carbon constrained world.