The world is undergoing a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. However, the speed and depth of this transition is uncertain and controversial. An accelerated energy transition will have deep implications for future oil and gas demand. There is now a debate over when global demand will peak. However, what happens after demand has peaked is perhaps more critical – will there be an extended plateau, a gentle decline or a sudden collapse? In this far ranging analysis the authors examine the implications for Norway, one of the world’s largest exporters of both energy and capital.