Guillaume Emin, Nicolas Lancesseur, Emeric Nicolas & Lee Clements
The Paris Agreement mitigation target aims to limit global warming to well below 2.0°C, which requires a net zero emissions level on a global scale by the second half of the century. Current trajectories and national plans (based on the nationally determined contributions, NDCs) appear to be insufficient to reach that target.
In this context, Beyond Ratings has developed the CLAIM methodology (Climate Liabilities Assessment Integrated Methodology) to address this challenge and offer a consistent analytical framework at the country level.
This approach is used in combination with an analysis of countries’ policy commitments through NDCs to gauge the ambition level of countries’ commitments and determine their temperatures. The authors use a temperature equation, that reflects the scientific consensus on the relationship between GHG emissions and temperature dynamics, to assess countries’ implied global warming temperatures based on their national commitments concerning climate change mitigation, as per their NDCs (“Nationally Determined Contributions”), submitted to the UNFCCC. This allows:
(i) The assessment of 2°C carbon budgets by country;
(ii) evaluation of the gaps between these budgets and the emissions level induced by countries’ policy commitments;
(iii) an estimation of countries’ temperatures resulting from these gaps; and
(iv) calculating aggregate results based on portfolios or benchmarks