TCFD Scenario Analysis: Integrating Future Carbon Price Risk Into Portfolio Analysis


Authors
Rick Lord

Research Organisation
Trucost S&P Global

Report Date
Feb. 4, 2019

Document summary

The Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, brings together governments, companies and academics to encourage the adoption of effective carbon policy, and encourages organizations to conduct scenario analysis to understand the resilience of their bottom lines against a ‘new normal’ backdrop, where emitting carbon incurs increasing financial penalties. Scenario analysis is a technique used by businesses and investors to evaluate the resilience of a company under a range of possible future conditions. Knowing where to start, however, is not altogether straightforward. There are countless potential scenarios and time horizons to evaluate. Obtaining relevant and reliable data is also a major challenge. To help investors navigate carbon price risk, Trucost has compiled a dataset of possible future carbon prices that can be used to stress test a company's current ability to absorb future costs. In this paper, Trucost examines the drivers of carbon price risk for a universe of 500 large-cap listed companies; Calculates the Carbon Earnings at Risk for a hypothetical portfolio to show how the dataset can be used to report in line with TCFD best practice requirements; and demonstrates how the dataset can be extended to understand potential Value at Risk for equity and credit investors.

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